- Mar 2012 was first full month of universal coverage in ALL areas of Ntcheu District
- Initial estimate: Malaria incidence, compared to the same month in the prior year,
is 50% lower in Mar 2012, 50% lower in Apr 2012, 45% lower in May 2012, 45% lower
in Jun 2012
- The incidence of malaria in July, August and September 2012 were 41%, 47% and 35% lower than in the corresponding months of the prior year.
- Different malaria diagnostic methods were used pre and post July 2011. Pre July
2011 data were via clinical observation. This diagnostic method can lead to an overstatement
of malaria i.e. false positives. Data in July 2011 and after were via use of Rapid
Diagnostic Testing Kits ie via blood testing, which is far more accurate.
- Comparing Jul-Nov2010 with Jul-Nov2011 data suggests an average 50% (range 30-70%)
over-diagnosis of malaria (false positives) in the Jul-Nov 2010 period. Comparing
Dec2010-Jan2011 with Dec 2011-Jan2012 data suggests a much lower over-diagnosis
of 0-25%. Anecdotal information from malaria scientists is that over-diagnosis of
malaria in the peak malaria season is usually lower than in the off-season as a
much higher percentage of people with fever and other malaria like symptoms do indeed
have malaria. We are seeking scientific study results on this issue.
- Working assumption: We believe it is reasonable, and perhaps even conservative given
the Jan 2011/2012 figures, to estimate the overstatement of malaria in Feb to Jun
2011 as 25% of reported cases. This is the assumption which generates the estimate
of a 40-50% reduction in malaria above (‘Initial estimate’)
Monthly Malaria Case Rate Data